9. syyskuuta 2025 , Palle Thomassen
Market trends for stainless steel - September 2025
Welcome to the latest market insights from Damstahl, where we delve into the dynamic world of stainless-steel trends. You’ll get a closer look at current market developments and updates on price trends, energy and transportation situations, as well as the availability of different product groups.
Market trends
As we enter the autumn period, the market continues to be driven by significant uncertainty.
Although the USA and the EU have concluded discussions regarding the imposition of duties, many economic experts view the agreement as more favorable to the U.S. than to the EU. Companies are now faced with a critical decision: either increase value-adding activities in the USA through their own facilities or subcontractors, or shift focus to other markets.
Another contributor to the high level of uncertainty is ‘home-made’, namely the CBAM mechanism and the unclear situation regarding the successor to the current safeguard measures, which must be in place by July 1, 2026, at the latest. In the long term, market regulations remain unclear, leading to postponed purchasing decisions and significantly delayed projects.
But to end this introduction on a positive note, we expect market prices to stabilize for the remainder of the year, and no significant price drops are anticipated. You can read more about the reasons behind our outlook in the following sections.
Raw materials
Nickel (LME 3 month)
As mentioned in our last market trends update from May 2025, nickel has been trading in the range of $14,500 - $15,000/ton. At the beginning of September, we observed a slight uptick above the $15,000/ton mark, with prices more likely moving toward $15,300/ton.
This price increase needs to remain stable before it can be considered a basis for potential further increases. However, together with stabilized scrap prices, it is at least a positive sign that the previous downtrend has been halted. Among all relevant raw materials, nickel continues to underperform due to oversupply and expanding NPI production capacities in Asia.
In the short term, we expect nickel to remain within the $15,000 - $15,500/ton range and see no signs of a breakout in 2025.
Chromium
Although ferrochrome prices saw a slight increase in August, the situation remains highly unstable.
While stainless steel production is weak across the globe, chromium supply remains strong, creating a market imbalance. At the same time, rising production costs could lead to supply shortages or higher prices in the long run.
In the short term, however, we do not expect any price increases for this raw material.
Ferromolybdenum
Among all relevant raw materials, ferromolybdenum is performing exceptionally well, reaching a level of $58,000/ton and thereby contributing to the increase in alloy surcharges going into September. The supply situation for this raw material is tight due to various incidents in Asia, where production capacities have been reduced. Meanwhile, demand remains strong, and production costs continue to be high.
Aluminium and copper
Aluminium
The early summer price fluctuations because of Donald Trump's introduction of new tariffs have gradually found a stable level and aluminum has remained stable at around 2200 - 2500 EUR/ton. August often marks the beginning of a pick-up in industrial activity after the slow summer period. This renewed demand, combined with a potential build-up of inventories ahead of the fall season, could drive aluminum prices higher.
Copper
Copper prices experienced a significant decline from July to August but remain above last year’s levels.
The recently announced tariffs are the main driver behind the current price fluctuations. Until market interest in this news subsides, further volatility is expected, as both consumers and investors remain cautious.
Despite this, demand for copper remains high, and there is confidence that prices will stabilize at a level higher than the current one.
Energy costs
As already mentioned in our May 2025 market trends, energy costs are no longer part of negotiations with our suppliers.
Now, as we enter the colder part of the year, namely autumn, prices are expected to rise due to the demand/supply situation. However, overall, the EU is well prepared, with gas storage facilities currently well filled. At the moment, the benchmark price for natural gas in the EU is around €32.00/MWh.
Freight situation
Sea
Changes in U.S. trade tariffs remain a significant source of uncertainty, disrupting global trade flows that were previously more stable. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to affect global supply chains and trade patterns.
Many companies have shifted from Just-in-Time to Just-in-Case strategies, prioritizing inventory buildup and supply security. This shift is now reflected in declining SCFI rates, which currently indicate reduced demand. A large portion of inventories was built up during the temporary tariff-free period granted by the U.S., which has now reduced the need for new shipments.
Air Freight
The air freight market has seen an increase in both volume and rate levels. It remains unclear whether this is due to a general rise in demand - potentially affecting sea freight as well - or if it is a result of companies accelerating shipments ahead of the new tariff regulations.
Scrap
Prices for stainless scraps stabilized in August.
An increased long-term focus on reducing carbon footprints and embracing circular economy principles - combined with regulations such as the EU’s CBAM and a low generation of new scrap due to subdued demand in key markets like Germany and Italy - could lead to supply chain bottlenecks and modest price increases.
The global stainless scrap market is expected to grow significantly over the next 10-12 years and key drivers are recycling initiatives, increased use of EAF-furnaces and growth in construction, automotive and manufacturing sectors.
Right now, there is large export of scrap from EU to india as prices in EU are app. 25% lower, so in our view either the scrap prices in EU will increase, or the mills will be short of raw material for their production.
News on products
Bars
As we enter September, the situation regarding the sourcing of bars from either the EU or Asia remains unchanged. While the EU reports short lead times for key commodities, India is producing within 90 days plus shipment time, with ocean routes still under pressure due to the situation in the Middle East.
Current discussions in the market are heavily influenced by the upcoming CBAM regulation. EU mills hope to regain market share from imported materials, while Indian mills are working to provide third-party verified data to support importers in preparing for the new regulation.
As of now, many questions remain unanswered regarding the implementation of CBAM - most notably, the price impact. Based on our own calculations, using a database built over many years through our CSR work, we estimate an effect in the range of €70 - €120/ton. Depending on grade and dimensions, this could influence sourcing decisions. However, for the time being, the majority of sourcing is expected to remain unchanged.
Tubes (Seamless)
And also for seamless tubes the situation remains relatively stable: EU-mills being able to deliver within short time, while India-mills are spending 4 – 6 months for production plus shipment. Interesting news on the seamless tubes is the situation around Safeguard, where since July we’re being challenged with a very fast expiration of the quota like we see within bars. This is a new situation and needs the right reaction and measure to cope with.
Tubes (Welded)
In the area of welded tubes the price development has been following the one for coils (as usual). The major European tube mills, however, with the Italians in the forefront, coming back from the vacation period end of August, are expected to push for stabilizing prices in the short term, and are likely to introduce a revised European price list during September to support this.
Availability from mill stocks from Italy is high and once Siderinox has finished the construction of their new high storage warehouse in a few months, availability will increase further.
Fittings and Flanges
As of mid-2025, the global order situation for stainless steel fittings and flanges remains stable, with consistent supply levels and manageable lead times across most regions.
Over the last weeks we could see that the offered prices for flanges from China and India are moving closer together after they have been far away from each other since April 2024. We are currently running a large new enquiry, which will provide a clearer picture. However, at the time of writing this report, the final figures were not yet available.
On fittings the situation remains unchanged compared to the last update in May - prices from Asia create huge pressure on the EU producers, even though there are some duties imposed.
Damstahl is there to support you readers wherever you see special requirements in Fittings and Flanges.
Sheets & plates
European stainless steel producers for flat products indicate that prices are nearing the bottom of the current cycle after the downward trend continued during the summer period.
Mills are likely to push for increased prices in September as they prepare for annual contract negotiations to start with OEMs in the automotive and white goods sectors. Stainless scrap prices, which are increasingly used as an indicator of price direction, stabilized in August, offering a little support to coil values.
A predicted reduction in imports, as CBAM taxes come into effect on January 1, 2026, is expected to support domestic prices later in the year.
Buyers are likely to become increasingly reluctant to purchase material from overseas suppliers as the price gap with European material continues to narrow. Additionally, arrival times for new production orders now extend into early 2026 and will therefore be subject to the new CBAM charges.
Any price increase, however, would need to be supported by either a rise in activity or a decrease in supply. In Europe, most mills continue to reduce capacity in an effort to balance supply and demand - and are rumored to be considering the implementation of temporary unemployment measures.
Price-development and conclusion
As mentioned at the beginning of this newsletter, we do not anticipate further price decreases. Instead, we expect prices to stabilize throughout the remainder of the year, with potential support emerging in 2026 due to the implementation of CBAM.
Despite the current high level of uncertainty, the market may benefit from increased price visibility and some positive momentum with the arrival of the new Alloy Surcharge in September.
Want to know more?
Palle Thomassen
Purchasing Director, Nordic
path@damstahl.com
Jan Knaak
jkn@damstahl.com
THREE-TIME WINNER OF E-COMMERCE AWARD 2023
