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June 3, 2025

Market trends for stainless steel - June 2025

Welcome to the latest market insights from Damstahl, where we delve into the dynamic world of stainless-steel trends. You’ll get a closer look at current market developments and updates on price trends, energy and transportation situations, as well as the availability of different product groups.

Market trends

So far, the year 2025 has been characterized above all by great uncertainty due to the customs disputes coming from the USA and the many other trouble spots we see around the world, not least the war in Ukraine and daily news of possible agreements that are then revised just a few days later.

We see very different pictures in the market: On the one hand, we see good demand in Scandinavia and an active, bustling market, which enables us as Damstahl to grow good business in these countries. At the same time, however, we are seeing continued weakness in the market in the Central European countries, which is primarily driven by the fact that Germany, as the economic engine of the EU, is still underperforming and has not yet regained its former strength. Many neighboring countries are dependent on exports to Germany and are therefore directly affected by this standstill. Although the latest economic data from Germany indicates a slight recovery, this might not be sustainable due to the upcoming summer period.

Raw materials

Nickel (LME 3 month)
Nickel, one of the main indicators for the price development of stainless-steel products, remains relatively stable in a range between 15,000 - 15,500 $/ton. After a brief dip close to 14,000 $/ton at the end of April, the raw material has recovered, but is not quite breaking through the 15,500 $/ton barrier.

The reasons for this are complex: on the one hand, there is still talk of an oversupply of nickel, with stocks on the London Metal Exchange approaching a record high; on the other hand, demand is low in the stainless steel industry and in battery production - influenced in the case of batteries by the fact that nickel-free solutions are increasingly being used. According to Mintec Nickel is set to rise to a mid-target at 18.500 USD/MT into Q3.

Chromium
Furthermore, there is no clear benchmark for the chrome price, which is why we can only look at individual indicators such as the import price to China, which has recently risen sharply to 1.05 $/lb. from below 1.00 $/lb. However, production capacities are being expanded in China and Indonesia at the same time, which in turn will put pressure on the price.

Ferromolybdenum
Ferromolybdenum is currently trading at around $47,000 per ton, which is low in a year-on-year comparison, but still represents a high price in historical terms.

Consumption of molybdenum exceeded production in 2024, and it remains to be seen how supply will continue to develop. Due to the fact that the price has fallen slightly, it can be assumed that there is no longer an undersupply.

Aluminium and copper

Like other metals, aluminum and copper also reacted to Trump's announced new tariffs. After a period of increases, the metals took a big drop of up to 12%. However, prices have recovered slightly and are now stable, but still at a lower level than before Trump's inauguration as president. The uncertain prices make consumers nervous and put a pressure on the consumption, which means that the aluminum mills in particular are in lack of orders.

We expect prices to continue to stabilize as more countries enter into dialogue with the US and make new tariff agreements in the coming period. The biggest uncertainty is what new ideas we will see from Trump - all eyes are on the US.

Aluminium
Aluminum prices have decreased by 12% since March. We experience that every news from the US affects prices and therefore we see daily fluctuations on the metal prices the mills are lacking orders and there is still available capacity for delivery within 3 - 4 weeks.

Copper
The copper price is approximately 6% lower than the price in March. Mills are still reporting stable activity and delivery times are still 5 - 6 weeks.

Energy costs

Energy costs are currently no longer an issue in discussions with the plants due to the summer temperatures and the very good supply of solar energy – Gas is currently traded around 37,00 €/MWH. In general, however, it appears that higher taxes and grid fees are leading to a general upward trend in energy costs - Italy in particular is reporting massive burdens due to high energy costs, which is currently making the production of steel and stainless steel there much more expensive.

Freight situation

Sea

After Trump's announcements in mid-April about a tariff war, it became clear to the shipping industry that they were forced to reschedule their operations. So, the large ocean vessels between the Far East and the US were scheduled to Europe instead. This based on the expectation that there would be no demand of volume to the US, making Europe the second largest tradeline.

Again, the world picture changed just a few weeks ago. The recent “tariff pause” and tariff reductions between China and the US have now led to a very high increase in both demand and freight rates. This is now creating a “Wild West” situation. Freight rates are already skyrocketing. It is to be expected that this will also have an impact on the freight level to Europe.

Some even talk about a new Corona situation, as the factors that triggered the chaos during Corona are also present now. Namely increased demand, pressure on capacity and container equipment, ships placed in the wrong places, etc.

In Asia and Europe, we have already for many weeks had many bottlenecks and less capacity operation than needed at several major terminals, which affects both pick-up, delivery and transit.

In addition, the conflict between Pakistan and India has led several shipping companies to adjust their routes to exclude Pakistan from their port schedules. However, this is not something that currently affects anything other than India/Pakistan cargo.

So again, it's all about good planning and forecast with your suppliers and freight forwarders.

Scrap

The scrap price recovery seen early in 2025 ended quickly, partly due to the uncertainty about the effects of the new US presidency, partly due to imports of low-cost billets and slabs from Indonesia simultaneously with competition from alternative materials like NPI.

The generation of new stainless scrap in EU remains low due to subdued demand, especially in the big “stainless countries” like Germany and Italy – combined with a supply chain holding back material.

While the European stainless-steel market is expected to see a modest rise in demand during the second half of 2025, the recovery is likely to be uneven and influenced by external economic factors. Stakeholders should remain vigilant and adaptable to navigate the evolving market landscape effectively.

CBAM


Currently there are many developments going on in preparation for the CBAM-period starting from the first of January 2026. We have reported the CBAM-data for more than one year now and will enter the definitive period soon. Thereby the next step is to apply for CBAM-registration and collect the date from our suppliers. A minimum of 80% of our supplies must bring the definitive CO2-value.

The costs for the CBAM-calculation aren’t yet known and there are different calculations in the media right now – the definite numbers will be shared no later than 31.12.2025 with us and thereby with you as well.

Product news

Tubes (Seamless)
In the area of seamless pipes, we see a relatively unchanged situation: European manufacturers offer short delivery times, but their prices are far from the prices we can achieve for imported goods. In India, for example, there are more players offering their products for export to Europe - in a market that is already oversupplied. Damstahl works with a few secured partners here and remain very cautious due to the customs regulations for the origin of the material too.

Tubes (Welded)
The necessary publication of a revised European price list end of Q1 containing price increases has, to some extent, been implemented in the market. A minor rebound, however, has been seen in Q2, primarily for less refined products.

Demand in the Nordic markets is stable, among other segments driven by the food- and pharma industry whereas the market sentiments in Central- and Southern Europe are less positive.

The business model for the traditional and leading stainless steel welded tube- and pipe mills in Europe has been undergoing a transformation in the past years and sales from mill stocks are now, unlike before, covering most of the volumes, allowing buyers to reduce stocks and increase stock rotation.

Fittings and flanges
As of mid-2025, the global order situation for stainless steel fittings and flanges remains stable, with consistent supply levels and manageable lead times across most regions.

While specific price data for flanges is limited, they are closely tied to stainless steel prices. The current oversupply and fluctuating raw material costs in the stainless-steel market suggest that flange prices are expected to be under pressure which will continue to impact the European market. The market is expected to remain volatile due to ongoing oversupply and geopolitical tensions. Potential stabilization may occur if global demand increases, and supply balances are achieved. However, factors like China's economic performance and international trade policies will play important roles.

Bars
The procurement situation in Europe and India remains relatively unchanged.

In Europe, we continue to see stable base prices, short delivery times and plants that are unable to utilize 100% of their capacities due to a lack of demand.

However, we are also increasingly hearing reports from India that production capacities are approaching oversupply and prices are coming under massive pressure as a result. In addition, more and more players are entering the market who do not have their own smelters, and it is not yet clear where the raw material for this is being sourced - due to the price pressure, imports from China or Indonesia to India may increase, so we remain extremely cautious when selecting our suppliers.

Despite the current conflict between Pakistan and India, we experience limited disturbances in the supply-chain as the two parties relatively fast agreed on a ceasefire recently.

Sheets & plates
Following the expected moderate price increases in Q1, large imports from mainly Taiwan-origin stainless steel cold rolled material in the beginning of Q2 have put pressure on the market prices in Europe.

Despite the import risks, the weak US Dollar is continuing to make import offers attractive to European buyers. Consequently, expectations for a further softening of European stainless-steel prices for flat products are expected by many market participants during the summer season.

However, with rising production costs and a projected increase in nickel prices, EU producers are likely to face limited scope for further price reductions. This may compel them to consider additional capacity cuts, even as demand is expected to pick up in the second half of 2025 - potentially leading to moderate price increases.

 

Price-development and conclusion


As this newsletter illustrates, very little is currently happening on the procurement side - prices and supply chains are stable, the market in Europe is weakening and so there is little movement. Alloy surcharges are under pressure despite the relative stability of raw material prices, but we see this as a snapshot and are handling the situation with caution. From a purely logical point of view, alloy surcharges should recover shortly and return to April levels.


For any questions or sparrings needed, please reach out to us.

Want to know more?

Palle Thomassen

Purchasing Director, Nordic
path@damstahl.com