23 oktober 2025
EU’s new Safeguard proposal: Stainless Steel at a turning point
The European Commission has unveiled a new Safeguard proposal that could take effect as early as April 2026 - and it’s set to shake the foundations of stainless steel imports into the EU. Whether you work with bars, tubes, or sheets and plates, these changes will impact the entire supply chain - from producers to end-users.
Impact of new EU Safeguard Measures on stainless steel imports
The European Commission has proposed significant changes to the current EU Safeguard measures, expected to take effect 1st of July 2026 as replacement for current safeguard measures. Rumors has it, that it could be validated as early as April 2026, causing uncertainty in the supply chain. While the exact implementation timeline is still being debated, we anticipate the proposal will be approved largely as it stands.
Key implications by product group
Whilst the duty on excess tonnage will double from 25% to 50% on all products, the reduction in the quotas varies from product category.
Bars
Imports to EU currently represent up to 40% of consumption, in central part of Europe more, whilst less in the Nordic region.
- Quotas will be reduced with 40% (average of bars and wire),
- The import prices will increase.
Here are two scenarios: - Import in Q3 2026 = 75% of the import in Q4 2025, the effective duty increases from 8 to 24%.
- Import will remain at current level, then the duty increases to 37.5%.
Regardless of which scenario materializes, it is highly likely to result in higher EU prices and longer lead times, as the ramp up process is complex, however manageable from a capacity point of view.
We are already seeing a shift in sourcing behavior: orders previously placed outside the EU are now being redirected to EU mills.
Seamless Tubes
The market response here is less predictable, the import quota will be reduced with 52%.
- Most of the consumption in EU today derives from imports, in particular from India. In commodities is a 100% import driven product.
- However, there is a massive overcapacity in India, this may lead to lower ex-works prices to offset a part of the increased duties.
- Ukraine is expected to be exempt, potentially increasing its market share.
However, we will see double-digit price increases and continued imports from outside the EU. In the short term, the uncertainty can jeopardize the supply.
Sheets & Plates
The overall reduction of the quota of 900,000 MT is approximately 20% of European capacity. As the price difference between the EU and imports is already less significant, we expect imports to more or less collapse. With an EU import system where you do not know the utilization of the quota before it’s too late, we expect imports to fall even lower than the quota, as no one is willing to take the risk.
- Whilst Damstahls sourcing remains unaffected, the 50% reduction in import volumes will significantly impact the broader supply chain.
According to SMR, the utilization of EU mills is 63%. There are no theoretical issues in producing the reduced imports. However, price increases have already started and are crucially necessary for the EU mills to survive.
End-users may face higher costs and reduced flexibility
The newly reduced proposal from the EU will, in the short term, have a positive effect on EU mills. However, as long as the EU hesitates to implement a system to prevent semi-finished and finished products with x % steel content, we are just digging the hole deeper for our EU production industry!
Michael Lund
Group CEO
mlu@damstahl.com
THREE-TIME WINNER OF E-COMMERCE AWARD 2023
