June 12, 2023
Market trends for Stainless Steel - June 2023
Now that we’re having nearly two full quarters in our books, we can see that the market is very different compared to the first two quarters in 2022. Since January prices are decreasing in more or less every product-segments and putting not only pressure on the market, but also the project-business. The upside of this trend is that we’re still seeing a stable demand tonnage wise, with optimistic outlook for the next months.
Nickel (LME 3 month)
As expected the Nickel didn’t stabilize at all over the last months. We’ve seen the peak in January 2023 – since then Nickel shows a downwards trend which is now reaching a band between 20.500 – 21.000 $/to. within the last weeks.
So what will the next weeks bring?
We expect Nickel to show some up trend development over the next weeks/the summer period reaching for a band of 21.500 – 23.000 $/to. Important will be how the summer-period develops and if stockiest will recover their warehouses after a long period with high stock-levels.
One thing is certain: Nickel will not stabilize
Chromium:
After Chromium has been increased for the Q2/2023 with 0,23 $/lb. we are of course still on the same level at 1,72 $/lb.
We still see question marks behind this pricing as this has been argued with energy-costs, while they’re decreasing since March. At the moment it’s impossible to give any outlook on Chromium for Q3/2023.
Ferromolybdenum:
After Ferromolybdenum had a massive rally with a peak of 105.500 $/to. by beginning of February 2023 it also fell in the same speed again now reaching 51.180 $/to.
But for the last weeks we could sense a stabilization of Ferromolybdenum which of course also pays in to the prices and alloy-surcharges in 316-grades.
An outlook for this material is very difficult to find, as we have seen massive volatility this year.
Scrap:
Scrap is further decreasing in price, even though the availability of scrap is limited (according
to our sources at least). Regarding the green-transition scrap will be even more important in the next months and years, which will definitely have an impact on the prices and availability again.
Energy cost
The downtrend in energy-costs is further existing and we see 0,00 €/kg energy-surcharges from most of the suppliers. Still there are energy-costs to be valid, but the possibility to discuss about them is available again. This picture is only for the moment – we expect the energy-costs under pressure from autumn again.
Availability by product groups
Bars:
After a very volatile 2022 we’ve seen stabilizations in terms of delivery-time and base-price all over 2023 so far. Actually the order-books of the steel-mills are very flexible and deliveries can be done within short. From Asia the delivery-times are as well stable, but price-wise there is huge pressure coming to Europe.
Sheets:
The availability on flat products is still very good we experience short lead times and almost no delays. But sadly this comes from a weak demand were many players both on stockiest and OEM side are still bringing down old stock and with the demand at the current level several mills are considering temporary shut downs or prolonging the maintenance outages in an effort or hope to rebalance supply and demand.
Tubes:
The seamless tubes business is still rather stable and also from Ukraine we can’t see any delays or logistical problems. On the imports the delivery-times are increasing again which could be a sign for good order-books in India.
Welded tubes at the same time are still under high pressure in prices. Mill stocks are still high and with the new price-list being published the mills try to push the customers to take bigger loads out.
All in all demand is good and we can’t see any upwards or downwards trend. It will be important on how the project-business will develop within the next months and the summer-period.
Conclusion
Some raw-materials seem to stabilize which pays in to a less volatile market. The upcoming summer-period could become a tipping-point for both prices and demand at the same time.
We’re still in Q2/2023 and the June started very positive so far – let’s keep the good spirit alive and enjoy the summer-time.
We’ll come back with a more detailed “Market-Trend” by August then.
Do you want to know more?
Henrik Ørskov
Director, Nordic CPO
hoe@damstahl.com
THREE-TIME WINNER OF E-COMMERCE AWARD 2023
